NAKAEGAWA Tosiyuki

Job title	Director/Department of Climate and Geochemistry Research
E-mail
Personal	Tosiyuki NAKAEGAWA in researchmap
Expertise	Fields: Hydroclimate, Seasonal Prediction, Future Climate Projection, Hydrology, Water resources Activities: Research fellow, Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo Visiting Professor, Universidad Tecnológica de Panamá Visiting Researcher, University of Putra Malaysia Member, International Commission on Climate, 　International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science (IAMAS)　 Member, Scientific advisory board, National Climater Center, Chinese Meteorological Agency Member, Investigative commission on adaptation to impact of future climate change on water resources sector, Ministry of Land, Transport, and Infrastructure, Chair, Study team for evaluation of climate-change-intensified disasters, Ministry of Environment, Japan Member, Working group on sector-specific Investigative commission on adaptation to impact of future climate change on water resources sector, Ministry of Environment, Member, Committee on international journal, Hydrological Research Letters, Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources Member, Subcommittee on statistical analysis on hydraulics and hydrology, Committee on Hydraulic Engineering, Japan Society of Civil Engineering Awards Award of Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan: Kosaka et al. (2024) Wiley Top Viewed Article 2025: Kawase et al. (2023) JMA Director-General's Award, JMA's Third Long-Term Reanalysis (2024) Letter of Recognition, ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee (2020) Certificate in appreciation of services to the World Meteorological Organization, The World Meteorological Organization (2018) Research Article Award of Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources, Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources (2012) Young Scientist Research Article Award of Remote Sensing Society of Japan, Remote Sensing Society of Japan (2002) Scholar Award of Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources, Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources (1998) Young Scientist Article Research Award of Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, Japan Society of Civil Engineering (1995) Young Scientist Research Article Award of Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources, Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources (1995) Doctoral Committee Member and Co-supervision of Ph.D. Students Terrestrial water storage esimated from GRACE Numerical modeling and simulations of global-to-continental scale groundwater movements Master Committee Member and Co-supervision of Master Students Future climate projections with dynamical downscaling simulations Distributed hydrological models in a urban catchment Soil moisture observations with carborne microwave scatterometer
Degree	Ph.D in Engineering
Publications	Safari, M. A. M., Nakaegawa, T., & Masseran, N. (2026). Robust fitting of the generalized Pareto distribution for extreme precipitation modeling: a case study in Japan. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 40(6), 132, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-026-03248-5 Nakaegawa, T., and Kobashi, T. (2025). Indonesia climate change: Observations and future projections in IPCC AR6 WG I and beyond. Forum Geografi, Vol. 39, No. 3, pp. 438-452, https://doi.org/10.23917/forgeo.12760 Trang, N. T. Q., Okada, K., Sugiyama, Y., Yoshida, T., Hirano, Y., Jittrapirom, P., Nakaegawa, T., Kobashi, T. (2025). On the decarbonization potentials of rooftop PVs integrated with EVs as battery for all the municipalities of Japan. Applied Energy, 393, 126067, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126067 Hidalgo, H. G., Nakaegawa, T., Romero, D., Alfaro, E. J., Maldonado, T., Imada, Y., & Yoshida, K. (2025). How rare was the 2016–2022 tropical cyclone activity near the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica? Natural Hazards, 1-25. 126067, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07427-5 Nakaegawa, T., (2025). Overview of Climate Projection Data Set 2022. Journal of Japan Solar Energy Society, 51(1), 25-32. Miura, Y., & Nakaegawa, T. (2024). Long‐Term Experimental Evaluation of a High‐Resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model From a Hydrological Perspective. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 129(3), e2023JD038786., https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038786 Kosaka, Y., Kobayashi, S., Harada, Y., Kobayashi, C., Naoe, H., Yoshimoto, K., ... T. Nakaegawa, & Onogi, K. (2024). The JRA-3Q reanalysis. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, 102(1), 49-109., https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2024-004 Nakaegawa, T., & Mizuta, R. (2023). Future projections of extreme precipitation in Tropical America and Panama under global warming based on 150‐year continuous simulations using 20‐km and 60‐km atmospheric general circulation models. International Journal of Climatology, 43(15), 7218-7233. studies.DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8261 Ishizaki, N. N., Nakaegawa, T., Pinzón, R., & Sasaki, H. (2023). Factors contributing to morning rain in the upper Río Chagres Basin, Panamá. Frontiers in Earth Science, 43(15), 11, 1105013. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1105013 Kawase, H., Nosaka, M., Watanabe, S. I., Yamamoto, K., Shimura, T., Naka, Y., ... & Takayabu, I. (2023). Identifying Robust Changes of Extreme Precipitation in Japan From Large Ensemble 5‐km‐Grid Regional Experiments for 4K Warming Scenario. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128(18), e2023JD038513. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038513 Nakaegawa, T., & Murazaki, K. (2022). Historical trends in climate indices relevant to surface air temperature and precipitation in Japan for recent 120 years. International Journal of Climatology , 42(16), 8950-8970. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7784 Nakaegawa, T. (2022). High-Performance Computing in Meteorology under a Context of an Era of Graphical Processing Units. Computers , 11(7), 114. DOI https://doi.org/10.3390/computers11070114 Mizuta, R., Nosaka, M., Nakaegawa, T., Endo, H., Kusunoki, S., Murata, A., & Takayabu, I. (2022). Extreme precipitation in 150-year continuous simulations by 20-km and 60-km atmospheric general circulation models with dynamical downscaling over Japan by a 20-km regional climate model. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, 100(3), 523-532. DOI: https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj/100/3/100_2022-026/_article/-char/ja/ Iizumi, T., Takaya, Y., Kim, W., Nakaegawa, T., & Maeda, S. (2021). Global within-season yield anomaly prediction for major crops derived using seasonal forecasts of large-scale climate indices and regional temperature and precipitation. Weather and Forecasting, 36(1), 285-299. doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0097.1 Nakaegawa, T., Kobashi, T., & Kamahori, H. (2020). Characteristics of extreme value statistics of annual maximum monthly precipitation in east asia calculated using an earth system model of intermediate complexity. Atmosphere, 11(12), 1273. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121273 Nakaegawa T, K. Hibino, I. Takayabu (2019) Future climates in major seven cities in russia under a global warming by a climate ana-logue approach, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineering, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering), 75, No.2, I_1045-I_1050. Nakaegawa, T., K. Hibino, and I. Takayabu, 2017: Identifying climate analogues for cities in Australia by a non-parametric approach using multi-ensemble, high-horizontal-resolution future climate projections by an atmospheric general circulation model, MRI-AGCM3.2H, Hydrological Research Letters, 11, 72-78. /doi: 10.3178/hrl.11.72.
Project	Research on understanding, assessment and projection of the climate system, and carbon and related biogeochemical cycles Area Theme 3: "ncreasing the sophistication of climate change projections around Japan", MEXT-program for the Advanced Studies of Climate Change Projection (SENTAN) 2022-2026 "Investigation of factors influencing the impact of inter-annual climate variability and extreme weather events on the hydrological cycle in the Panama Canal basin" funded by JSPS International Collaborative Research 2023-2028 ERCA fund: 2-2401 「Quantifying and understanding complex extreme weather and climate phenomena related to future changes in Japan and the Asia-Pacific region」 　　　　 JSPS Scientific Promotion Grant: Impact of climatic interannual variabilities and extreme weather on hydrological cycles in the Panama Canal Basin JSPS Scientific Promotion Grant: Statistical modeling and risk assessment of extreme wind events: An Extreme Value Theory proposed by Dr. Muhammad Aslam Mohd Safari" funded by JSPS Postdoctoral Fellowship for Research in Japan International collaborations: Panama, Malaysia, Costa Rica, Equador, Thailand, Phillipine, Vietnamn, etc. Please contact me if you would like to be a visiting scholar in MRI or to apply JSPS postdoctoral fellow, Matsumae Fellowship and/or others.