Kawabata, Y., U. Shimada, and M. Yamaguchi, 2023: The 30-year (1987-2016)
Trend of Strong Typhoons and Genesis Locations Found in the Japan
Meteorological Agency's Dvorak Reanalysis Data, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 101,
435-443.
Kawase, H., M. Yamaguchi, Y. Imada, S. Hayashi, A. Murata, T. Nakaegawa, T. Miyasaka, and I. Takayabu, 2021: Enhancement of extremely heavy precipitation induced by Typhoon Hagibis (2019) due to historical warming, SOLA, 17, 7-13.
Yamaguchi, M., and S. Maeda, 2020: Slowdown of typhoon translation speeds
in mid-latitudes in September influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
and global warming, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan., 98, 1321-1334.
Yamaguchi, M., and S. Maeda, 2020: Increase in the Number of Tropical
Cyclones Approaching Tokyo Since 1980, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 98, 775-786.
Yamaguchi, M., J. C. L. Chan, I.-J. Moon, K. Yoshida, and R.
Mizuta, 2020: Global warming changes tropical cyclone translation
speed, Nature Communications, 11, 47.
台風の進路
Tang, K., J. C. L. Chan, and M. Yamaguchi, 2021: Large Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors of Global Numerical Weather Prediction Models in western North Pacific Basin, Tropical Cyclone Research and Review,10, 151-169.
Kawabata, Y., and Yamaguchi, M., 2020: Probability ellipse for tropical cyclone
track forecasts with multiple ensembles, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 98, 821-833.
Tang, K., J. C. L. Chan, and M. Yamaguchi, 2020: Effects of
the Outer Size on Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts, Meteorological
Applications, 27. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1888
Fukuda, J., and M. Yamaguchi, 2019: Determining 70 Percent
Probability-Circle Radii of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts with
Multiple Ensembles, SOLA, 15, 250-256.
Magnusson, L., J. D. Doyle, W. A. Komaromi, F. Zhang, R. Torn,
C. K. Tang, C. L. Chan, and M. Yamaguchi, 2019: Advances in
understanding difficult cases of track forecasts, Tropical Cyclone
Research and Review, 8(3), 109-122.
Zhou, F., W. Duan, Z. He, and M. Yamaguchi, 2018: Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part II: Model uncertainty. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 35, 1277-1290.
Yamaguchi, M., J. Ishida, H. Sato, and M. Nakagawa, 2017: WGNE Intercomparison of
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts by Operational Global Models: A Quarter-Century
and Beyond, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 2337-2349.
Yasunaga, K., T. Miyajima, and M. Yamaguchi, 2016: Relationships between
Tropical Cyclone Motion and Surrounding Flow with Reference to Longest
Radius and Maximum Sustained Wind, SOLA, 12, 277-281.
Feifan Z., M. Yamaguchi, X. Qin, 2016: Possible sources of forecast errors
generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for
landfalling tropical cyclones. Part I: Initial uncertainties. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 33, 841-851.
Nishimura, M. and M. Yamaguchi, 2015: Selective ensemble mean
technique for tropical cyclone track forecasts using multi-model
ensembles. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review., 4, 71-78.
Yamaguchi, M., T. Nakazawa, and S. Hoshino, 2014:
North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Project,
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 3, 193-201.
Magnusson, L., J.-R. Bidlot, S. Lang, A. Thorpe, N. Wedi, and M.
Yamaguchi, 2014: Evaluation of medium-range forecasts for hurricane
Sandy, Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 1962-1981.
Yamaguchi, M., T. Nakazawa, and S. Hoshino, 2012:
On the relative benefits of a multi-centre grand ensemble for tropical cyclone track prediction in the western North Pacific,
Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 138, 2019-2029.
Yamaguchi, M., T. Nakazawa, and K. Aonashi, 2012:
Tropical cyclone track forecasts using JMA model with ECMWF and JMA initial conditions,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09801.
Miyoshi, T., T. Komori, H. Yonehara, R. Sakai, and M. Yamaguchi,
2010: Impact of resolution transform of the initial condition on
typhoon track forecasts, Weather and Forecasting, 25, 1568-1573.
台風の強度
Yamaguchi, M., N. Usui, and N. Hirose, 2024: Typhoon Intensity Forecasts using TIFS with Pseudo Ocean Coupling, SOLA. (Accepted)
Shimada, U., M. Yamaguchi, and S. Nishimura, 2020: Is the
Number of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Events in the Western
North Pacific Increasing?, SOLA, 16, 1-5.
Yamaguchi, M., H. Owada, U. Shimada, M. Sawada, T. Iriguchi,
K. D. Musgrave, and M. DeMaria, 2018: Tropical Cyclone Intensity
Prediction in the Western North Pacific Basin using SHIPS and JMA/GSM,
SOLA, 14, 138-143.
Shimada, U., H. Owada, M. Yamaguchi, T. Iriguchi, M. Sawada, K.
Aonashi, M. DeMaria, and K. Musgrave, 2018: Further Improvements to
the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme Using Tropical
Cyclone Rainfall and Structural Features, Wea. Forecasting, 33,
1587-1603.
Ito, K., M. Sawada, and M. Yamaguchi, 2018: Tropical cyclone forecasts in the Western North Pacific with high-resolution atmosphere and coupled models, Papers in Meteorology and Geophysics, 67, 15-34.
Nakano, M., A. Wada, M. Sawada, H. Yoshimura, R. Onishi, S. Kawahara,
W. Sasaki, T. Nasuno, M. Yamaguchi, T. Iriguchi, M. Sugi, and Y. Takeuchi,
: Global 7-km mesh nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for
improving TYphoon forecast (TYMIP-G7): Experimental design and
preliminary results, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss.10, 1363-1381.
台風の発生
Liang, M., J. C. L. Chan, J. Xu, and M. Yamaguchi, 2022: Numerical Prediction of Tropical Cyclogenesis Part II: Identification of large-scale physical processes under the monsoon shear line synoptic pattern, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 148, 1965-1982.
Liang, M., J. C. L. Chan, J. Xu, and M. Yamaguchi, 2020: Numerical Prediction of Tropical Cyclogenesis Part I: Evaluation of Model Performance, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 147, 1626-1641.
Fudeyasu. H., R. Yoshida, M. Yamaguchi, H. Eito, C. Muroi, S.
Nishimura, K. Bessho, Y. Oikawa, and N. Koide, 2020: Development
Conditions for Tropical Storms over the Western North Pacific
Stratified by Large-scale Flow Patterns, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 98, 61-72.
Camargo, S. J., J. Camp, R. L. Elsberry, P. A. Gregory, P. J.
Klotzbach, C. J. Schreck III, A. H. Sobel, M. J. Ventrice, F. Vitart,
Z. Wang, M. C. Wheeler, M. Yamaguchi, and R. Zhan, 2019: Tropical
Cyclone Prediction on Subseasonal Time-Scales, Tropical Cyclone
Research and Review, 8(3), 150-165.
Yamaguchi, M., and N. Koide, 2017: Tropical cyclone genesis guidance using
the early stage Dvorak analysis and global ensembles, Wea. Forecasting, 32, 2133-2141.
Yamaguchi, M., F. Vitart, S. T. K. Lang, L. Magnusson, R. L.
Elsberry, G. Elliott, M. Kyouda, and T. Nakazawa, 2015: Global
distribution on the skill of tropical cyclone activity forecasts from
short- to medium-range time scales. Weather and Forecasting. 30,
1695-1709.
アンサンブル予報・予測可能性
Woolnough, S. J., F. Vitart, A. W. Robertson, C. A. S. Coelho, R. Lee, H. Lin, A.
Kumar, C. Stan, M. Balmaseda, N. Caltabiano, M. Yamaguchi, H.
Afargan-Gerstman, V. L. Boult, F. M. De Andrade, D. Büeler, A. Carreric, D. A.
Campos Diaz, J. Day, J. Dorrington, M. Feldmann, J. C. Furtado, C. M. Grams,
R. Koster, L. Hirons, V. S. Indasi, P. Jadhav, Y. Liu, P. Nying’uro, C. D. Roberts,
E. Rouges, and J. Ryu, 2024: Celebrating 10 Years of the Subseasonal to
Seasonal Prediction Project and Looking to the Future, Bulletin of the
American Meteorological Society, 105, E521-E526.
Jason P. Dunion, C. Davis, H. Titley, H. Greatrex, M. Yamaguchi, J. Methven, R.
Ashrit, Z. Wang, H. Yu, A.-C. Fontan, A. Brammer, M. Kucas, M. Ford, P. Papin,
F. Prates, C. Mooney, A. Kruczkiewicz, P. Chakraborty, A. Burton, M. DeMaria,
R. Torn, J. L. Vigh, 2023: Recommendations for improved tropical cyclone
formation and position probabilistic forecast products, Tropical Cyclone
Research and Review, 12, 241-258.
Yamaguchi, M., T. Nakaegawa, and L. Magnusson, 2023: Utilizing Ensemble Reforecast Data for Reservoir Operation, Journal of Japan Society of Hydrology & Water Resources, 36, 52-62.
Magnusson, L., D. Ackerley, Y. Bouteloup, J.-H. Chen, J. Doyle, P. Earnshaw, Y. C. Kwon, M. Kohler, S. T. K Lang, Y.-J. Lim, M. Matsueda, T. Matsunobu, R. McTaggart-Cowan, A. Reinecke, M. Yamaguchi, and L. Zhou, 2022: Skill of Medium-Range Forecast Models Using the Same Initial Conditions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 103, E2050-E2068.
Titley, H. A., M. Yamaguchi, L. Magnusson, 2019: Current and
potential use of ensemble forecasts in operational TC forecasting:
results from a global forecaster survey, Tropical Cyclone Research and
Review, 8(3), 166-180.
Swinbank, R., M. Kyouda, P. Buchanan, L. Froude, T. M. Hamill, T. D. Hewson, J. H. Keller, M. Matsueda, J. Methven, F. Pappenberger, M. Scheuerer, H. A. Titley, L. Wilson, and M. Yamaguchi, 2016:
The TIGGE Project and its Achievements,
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. 97, 49-67.
Yamaguchi, M., S. Lang, M. Leutbecher, M. Rodwell, G. Radnoti
and N. Bormann, 2016: Observation-based evaluation of ensemble
reliability. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 142, 506-514.
Rodwell, M. J., S. T. K. Lang, N. B. Ingleby, N. Bormann, E.
Hólm, F. Rabier, D. S. Richardson , and M. Yamaguchi, 2016: Reliability
in Ensemble Data Assimilation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc, 142, 443-454.
Yamaguchi, M., D. S. Nolan, M. Iskandarani, S. J. Majumdar, M. S.
Peng, and C. A. Reynolds, 2011: Singular vectors for tropical
cyclone-like vortices in a nondivergent barotropic framework, J.
Atmos. Sci., 68, 2273-2291.
Kunii, M., K. Saito, H. Seko, M. Hara, T. Hara, M. Yamaguchi, G.
Jiandong, M. Charron, J. Du, Y. Wang, and D. Chen, 2011: Verifications
and Intercomparisons of Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction Systems in
B08RDP, Tellus, 63A, 531-549.
Saito, K., M. Hara, H. Seko, M. Kunii, and M. Yamaguchi,
2011: Mesoscale ensemble pediction system of MRI/JMA at B08RDP. Part1:
Comparison of initial perturbation methods, Tellus, 63A, 445-467.
Yamaguchi, M., and S. J. Majumdar, 2010: Using TIGGE data to
diagnose initial perturbations and their growth for tropical cyclone
ensemble forecasts, Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 3634-3655.
Yamaguchi, M., R. Sakai, M. Kyoda, T. Komori, and T. Kadowaki,
2009: Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System developed at the Japan
Meteorological Agency, Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2592-2604.
航空機観測・最適観測法
Yamada, H., K. Ito, K. Tsuboki, T. Shinoda, T. Ohigashi, M. Yamaguchi, T. Nakazawa, N. Nagahama, and K. Shimizu, 2020: The Double Warm-Core Structure of Typhoon Lan (2017) as Observed through the First Japanese Eyewall-Penetrating Aircraft Reconnaissance, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 99, 1297-1327.
Ito, K., H. Yamada, M. Yamaguchi, T. Nakazawa, N. Nagahama, K.
Shimizu, T. Ohigashi, T. Shinoda, K. Tsuboki, Analysis and Forecast
Using Dropsonde Data from the Inner-Core Region of Tropical Cyclone
Lan (2017), 2018: Obtained during the First Aircraft Missions of
T-PARCII, SOLA, 14, 105-110.
Yamaguchi, M., T. Iriguchi, T. Nakazawa, and C.-C. Wu, 2009: An
observing system experiment for Typhoon Conson (2004) using a singular
vector method and DOTSTAR data, Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2801-2816.
Wu, C.-C., J.-H. Chen, S. Majumdar, M. Peng, C. Reynolds, S.
Aberson, R. Buizza, M. Yamaguchi, S.-G. Chen, T. Nakazawa, and K.-H.
Chou, 2009: Inter-comparison of Targeted Observation Guidances for
Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific, Mon. Wea. Rev., 137,
2471-2492.
