Department of Applied Meteorology
Meteorological Research Institute
Japan Meteorological Agency
Address: 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan
Email: myamagu at mri-jma.go.jp
Updated August 2020
Date of Birth
August 3, 1978
Nationality
Japan
Educational Background
B.S., Meteorological College (Affiliated organization of the Japan Meteorological Agency), 2002
M.S. in Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, University of Miami, 2010
Thesis title: Initial Condition Sensitivity and Dynamical Mechanism of Perturbation Growth in Tropical Cyclones
Ph.D. in Geophysics, Tohoku University, 2011
Thesis title: On the Use of Singular Vectors for Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts
Professional Experience
2019.04-Present Senior Researcher, Department of Applied Meteorology, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency
2016.04-2019.03 Senior Researcher, Typhoon Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency
2014.01-2016.03 Researcher, Typhoon Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency
2013.01-2014.01 Visiting Scientist, Predictability Division, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
2010.08-2013.01 Researcher, Typhoon Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency
2008-08-2010.07 Graduate Research Assistant, Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami
2002.04-2008.08 Scientific Official, Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency
Research Interests
Tropical cyclone track, intensity and genesis forecasts
Aircraft and adaptive observations
Ensemble forecasts
Global warming and its influence on tropical cyclone
Awards
Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Editors' Highlights, 2020
Kawabata, Y., and Yamaguchi, M., 2020: Probability ellipse for tropical cyclone
track forecasts with multiple ensembles, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 98, 821-833.
Japan Meteorological Agency Director-General Award (Group Award), 2019
Implementation of five-day typhoon intensity forecasts
Meteorological Research Institute (MRI/JMA) Director-General Award (Group Award), 2019
Implementation of five-day typhoon intensity forecasts
SOLA paper award, Meteorological Society of Japan, 2018
Ito, K., H. Yamada, M. Yamaguchi, T. Nakazawa, N. Nagahama, K.
Shimizu, T. Ohigashi, T. Shinoda, K. Tsuboki, Analysis and Forecast
Using Dropsonde Data from the Inner-Core Region of Tropical Cyclone
Lan (2017), 2018: Obtained during the First Aircraft Missions of
T-PARCII, SOLA, 14, 105-110.
Syono Award, Meteorological Society of Japan, 2015
Research and development of typhoon forecasting technique using a singular vector method and ensemble approaches
Certificate of Appreciation from WMO, 2014
Contribution to the WMO THORPEX PROGRAMME
Meteorological Research Institute (MRI/JMA) Director-General Award (Group Award), 2014
Research and development of TIGGE products and international contribution to meteorological disaster reduction operations
MPO best paper award, Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, University of Miami, 2010
Yamaguchi, M., and S. J. Majumdar, 2010: Using TIGGE data to
diagnose initial perturbations and their growth for tropical cyclone
ensemble forecasts, Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 3634-3655.
Japan Meteorological Agency Director-General Award (Group Award), 2010
Implementation of five-day typhoon track forecasts
Selected Presentations
Yamaguchi, M., 2019: Recent Research and Development at JMA to Improve Typhoon Forecasts, The International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Ocean Interaction in the Northwest Pacific 2019, June 2019. (Jeju, Korea) [Invited Presentation]
Yamaguchi, M., H Titley, and L. Magnusson, 2018: Current and potential use of ensemble forecasts in operational TC forecasting, WMO 9th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9), December 2018. (Hawaii, USA) [Session chair presentation]
Yamaguchi, M., 2017: The Latest Model Simulation and Observational Studies
related to Tropical Cyclone in Japan, 49th session of the Typhoon Committee,
February 2017. (Yokohama, Japan) [Technical Presentation]
Yamaguchi, M. and G. Elliott, 2014: Advances in Forecasting Motion,
WMO 8th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-8),
December 2014. (Jeju, Korea) [Topic chair presentation]
Yamaguchi, M., 2014: Multi-model ensemble forecasts of
tropical cyclones using TIGGE, World Weather Open Science Conference,
August 2014. (Montreal, Canada) [Keynote speaker]
Refereed Publications
Global warming
Yamaguchi, M., and S. Maeda, 2020: Slowdown of typhoon translation speeds
in mid-latitudes in September influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
and global warming, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan. (Accepted)
Yamaguchi, M., and S. Maeda, 2020: Increase in the Number of Tropical
Cyclones Approaching Tokyo Since 1980, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 98, 775-786.
Yamaguchi, M., J. C. L. Chan, I.-J. Moon, K. Yoshida, and R.
Mizuta, 2020: Global warming changes tropical cyclone translation
speed, Nature Communications, 11, 47.
Tropical cyclone track
Kawabata, Y., and Yamaguchi, M., 2020: Probability ellipse for tropical cyclone
track forecasts with multiple ensembles, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 98, 821-833.
Tang, K., J. C. L. Chan, and M. Yamaguchi, 2020: Effects of
the Outer Size on Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts, Meteorological
Applications, 27. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1888
Fukuda, J., and M. Yamaguchi, 2019: Determining 70 Percent
Probability-Circle Radii of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts with
Multiple Ensembles, SOLA, 15, 250-256.
Magnusson, L., J. D. Doyle, W. A. Komaromi, F. Zhang, R. Torn,
C. K. Tang, C. L. Chan, and M. Yamaguchi, 2019: Advances in
understanding difficult cases of track forecasts, Tropical Cyclone
Research and Review, 8(3), 109-122.
Zhou, F., W. Duan, Z. He, and M. Yamaguchi, 2018: Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part II: Model uncertainty. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 35, 1277-1290.
Yamaguchi, M., J. Ishida, H. Sato, and M. Nakagawa, 2017: WGNE Intercomparison of
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts by Operational Global Models: A Quarter-Century
and Beyond, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 2337-2349.
Yasunaga, K., T. Miyajima, and M. Yamaguchi, 2016: Relationships between
Tropical Cyclone Motion and Surrounding Flow with Reference to Longest
Radius and Maximum Sustained Wind, SOLA, 12, 277-281.
Feifan Z., M. Yamaguchi, X. Qin, 2016: Possible sources of forecast errors
generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for
landfalling tropical cyclones. Part I: Initial uncertainties. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 33, 841-851.
Nishimura, M. and M. Yamaguchi, 2015: Selective ensemble mean
technique for tropical cyclone track forecasts using multi-model
ensembles. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review., 4, 71-78.
Yamaguchi, M., T. Nakazawa, and S. Hoshino, 2014:
North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Project,
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 3, 193-201.
Magnusson, L., J.-R. Bidlot, S. Lang, A. Thorpe, N. Wedi, and M.
Yamaguchi, 2014: Evaluation of medium-range forecasts for hurricane
Sandy, Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 1962-1981.
Yamaguchi, M., T. Nakazawa, and S. Hoshino, 2012:
On the relative benefits of a multi-centre grand ensemble for tropical cyclone track prediction in the western North Pacific,
Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 138, 2019-2029.
Yamaguchi, M., T. Nakazawa, and K. Aonashi, 2012:
Tropical cyclone track forecasts using JMA model with ECMWF and JMA initial conditions,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09801.
Miyoshi, T., T. Komori, H. Yonehara, R. Sakai, and M. Yamaguchi,
2010: Impact of resolution transform of the initial condition on
typhoon track forecasts, Weather and Forecasting, 25, 1568-1573.
Tropical cyclone intensity
Shimada, U., M. Yamaguchi, and S. Nishimura, 2020: Is the
Number of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Events in the Western
North Pacific Increasing?, SOLA, 16, 1-5.
Yamaguchi, M., H. Owada, U. Shimada, M. Sawada, T. Iriguchi,
K. D. Musgrave, and M. DeMaria, 2018: Tropical Cyclone Intensity
Prediction in the Western North Pacific Basin using SHIPS and JMA/GSM,
SOLA, 14, 138-143.
Shimada, U., H. Owada, M. Yamaguchi, T. Iriguchi, M. Sawada, K.
Aonashi, M. DeMaria, and K. Musgrave, 2018: Further Improvements to
the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme Using Tropical
Cyclone Rainfall and Structural Features, Wea. Forecasting, 33,
1587-1603.
Ito, K., M. Sawada, and M. Yamaguchi, 2018: Tropical cyclone forecasts in the Western North Pacific with high-resolution atmosphere and coupled models, Papers in Meteorology and Geophysics, 67, 15-34.
Nakano, M., A. Wada, M. Sawada, H. Yoshimura, R. Onishi, S. Kawahara,
W. Sasaki, T. Nasuno, M. Yamaguchi, T. Iriguchi, M. Sugi, and Y. Takeuchi,
: Global 7-km mesh nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for
improving TYphoon forecast (TYMIP-G7): Experimental design and
preliminary results, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss.10, 1363-1381.
Tropical cyclone genesis
Fudeyasu. H., R. Yoshida, M. Yamaguchi, H. Eito, C. Muroi, S.
Nishimura, K. Bessho, Y. Oikawa, and N. Koide, 2020: Development
Conditions for Tropical Storms over the Western North Pacific
Stratified by Large-scale Flow Patterns, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 98, 61-72.
Camargo, S. J., J. Camp, R. L. Elsberry, P. A. Gregory, P. J.
Klotzbach, C. J. Schreck III, A. H. Sobel, M. J. Ventrice, F. Vitart,
Z. Wang, M. C. Wheeler, M. Yamaguchi, and R. Zhan, 2019: Tropical
Cyclone Prediction on Subseasonal Time-Scales, Tropical Cyclone
Research and Review. 8(3), 150-165.
Yamaguchi, M., and N. Koide, 2017: Tropical cyclone genesis guidance using
the early stage Dvorak analysis and global ensembles, Wea. Forecasting, 32, 2133-2141.
Yamaguchi, M., F. Vitart, S. T. K. Lang, L. Magnusson, R. L.
Elsberry, G. Elliott, M. Kyouda, and T. Nakazawa, 2015: Global
distribution on the skill of tropical cyclone activity forecasts from
short- to medium-range time scales. Weather and Forecasting. 30,
1695-1709.
Ensemble forecasting
Titley, H. A., M. Yamaguchi, L. Magnusson, 2019: Current and
potential use of ensemble forecasts in operational TC forecasting:
results from a global forecaster survey, Tropical Cyclone Research and
Review, 8(3), 166-180.
Swinbank, R., M. Kyouda, P. Buchanan, L. Froude, T. M. Hamill, T. D. Hewson, J. H. Keller, M. Matsueda, J. Methven, F. Pappenberger, M. Scheuerer, H. A. Titley, L. Wilson, and M. Yamaguchi, 2016:
The TIGGE Project and its Achievements,
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. 97, 49-67.
Yamaguchi, M., S. Lang, M. Leutbecher, M. Rodwell, G. Radnoti
and N. Bormann, 2016: Observation-based evaluation of ensemble
reliability. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 142, 506-514.
Rodwell, M. J., S. T. K. Lang, N. B. Ingleby, N. Bormann, E.
Hlm, F. Rabier, D. S. Richardson , and M. Yamaguchi, 2016: Reliability
in Ensemble Data Assimilation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc, 142, 443-454.
Yamaguchi, M., D. S. Nolan, M. Iskandarani, S. J. Majumdar, M. S.
Peng, and C. A. Reynolds, 2011: Singular vectors for tropical
cyclone-like vortices in a nondivergent barotropic framework, J.
Atmos. Sci., 68, 2273-2291.
Kunii, M., K. Saito, H. Seko, M. Hara, T. Hara, M. Yamaguchi, G.
Jiandong, M. Charron, J. Du, Y. Wang, and D. Chen, 2011: Verifications
and Intercomparisons of Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction Systems in
B08RDP, Tellus, 63A, 531-549.
Saito, K., M. Hara, H. Seko, M. Kunii, and M. Yamaguchi,
2011: Mesoscale ensemble pediction system of MRI/JMA at B08RDP. Part1:
Comparison of initial perturbation methods, Tellus, 63A, 445-467.
Yamaguchi, M., and S. J. Majumdar, 2010: Using TIGGE data to
diagnose initial perturbations and their growth for tropical cyclone
ensemble forecasts, Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 3634-3655.
Yamaguchi, M., R. Sakai, M. Kyoda, T. Komori, and T. Kadowaki,
2009: Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System developed at the Japan
Meteorological Agency, Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2592-2604.
Aircraft observation / Adaptive observation
Ito, K., H. Yamada, M. Yamaguchi, T. Nakazawa, N. Nagahama, K.
Shimizu, T. Ohigashi, T. Shinoda, K. Tsuboki, Analysis and Forecast
Using Dropsonde Data from the Inner-Core Region of Tropical Cyclone
Lan (2017), 2018: Obtained during the First Aircraft Missions of
T-PARCII, SOLA, 14, 105-110.
Yamaguchi, M., T. Iriguchi, T. Nakazawa, and C.-C. Wu, 2009: An
observing system experiment for Typhoon Conson (2004) using a singular
vector method and DOTSTAR data, Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2801-2816.
Wu, C.-C., J.-H. Chen, S. Majumdar, M. Peng, C. Reynolds, S.
Aberson, R. Buizza, M. Yamaguchi, S.-G. Chen, T. Nakazawa, and K.-H.
Chou, 2009: Inter-comparison of Targeted Observation Guidances for
Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific, Mon. Wea. Rev., 137,
2471-2492.