Updated April 2024

Munehiko Yamaguchi CV (PDF) Department of Applied Meteorology Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological Agency Address: 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan Email: myamagu at mri-jma.go.jp

Educational Background

• B.S., Meteorological College (Affiliated organization of the Japan Meteorological Agency), 2002


• M.S. in Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, University of Miami, 2010
Thesis title: Initial Condition Sensitivity and Dynamical Mechanism of Perturbation Growth in Tropical Cyclones


• Ph.D. in Geophysics, Tohoku University, 2011
Thesis title: On the Use of Singular Vectors for Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts

Professional Experience

• 2019.04-Present
  Senior Researcher, Department of Applied Meteorology, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency


• 2021.10-2023.09
  Scientific Officer, World Weather Research Division, Science and Innovation Department, World Meteorological Organization


• 2016.04-2019.03
  Senior Researcher, Typhoon Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency


• 2010.08-2016.03
  Researcher, Typhoon Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency


• 2013.01-2014.01
  Visiting Scientist, Predictability Division, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts


• 2002.04-2010.07
  Scientific Official, Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency


• 2008-08-2010.07
  Graduate Research Assistant, Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami

Research Interests

• Tropical cyclone track, intensity and genesis forecasts
• Aircraft and adaptive observations
• Ensemble forecasting
• Global warming and its influence on tropical cyclones

Awards

• Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Award, 2023
Kawabata, Y., U. Shimada, and M. Yamaguchi, 2023: The 30-year (1987?2016) Trend of Strong Typhoons and Genesis Locations Found in the Japan Meteorological Agency's Dvorak Reanalysis Data, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 101, 435-443.


• Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Editors' Highlights, 2023
Kawabata, Y., U. Shimada, and M. Yamaguchi, 2023: The 30-year (1987?2016) Trend of Strong Typhoons and Genesis Locations Found in the Japan Meteorological Agency's Dvorak Reanalysis Data, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 101, 435-443.


• Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Award, 2020
Kawabata, Y., and Yamaguchi, M., 2020: Probability ellipse for tropical cyclone track forecasts with multiple ensembles, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 98, 821-833.


• Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Editors' Highlights, 2020
Kawabata, Y., and Yamaguchi, M., 2020: Probability ellipse for tropical cyclone track forecasts with multiple ensembles, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 98, 821-833.


• Japan Meteorological Agency Director-General Award (Group Award), 2019
Implementation of five-day typhoon intensity forecasts


• Meteorological Research Institute (MRI/JMA) Director-General Award (Group Award), 2019
Implementation of five-day typhoon intensity forecasts


• SOLA paper award, Meteorological Society of Japan, 2018
Ito, K., H. Yamada, M. Yamaguchi, T. Nakazawa, N. Nagahama, K. Shimizu, T. Ohigashi, T. Shinoda, K. Tsuboki, Analysis and Forecast Using Dropsonde Data from the Inner-Core Region of Tropical Cyclone Lan (2017), 2018: Obtained during the First Aircraft Missions of T-PARCII, SOLA, 14, 105-110.


• Syono Award, Meteorological Society of Japan, 2015
Research and development of typhoon forecasting technique using a singular vector method and ensemble approaches


• Certificate of Appreciation from WMO, 2014
Contribution to the WMO THORPEX PROGRAMME


• Meteorological Research Institute (MRI/JMA) Director-General Award (Group Award), 2014
Research and development of TIGGE products and international contribution to meteorological disaster reduction operations


• MPO best paper award, Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, University of Miami, 2010
Yamaguchi, M., and S. J. Majumdar, 2010: Using TIGGE data to diagnose initial perturbations and their growth for tropical cyclone ensemble forecasts, Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 3634-3655.


• Japan Meteorological Agency Director-General Award (Group Award), 2010
Implementation of five-day typhoon track forecasts

Refereed Publications

Climate change, Global warming

1. Kawabata, Y., U. Shimada, and M. Yamaguchi, 2023: The 30-year (1987-2016) rend of Strong Typhoons and Genesis Locations Found in the Japan Meteorological Agency's Dvorak Reanalysis Data, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 101, 435-443.
2. Kawase, H., M. Yamaguchi, Y. Imada, S. Hayashi, A. Murata, T. Nakaegawa, T. Miyasaka, and I. Takayabu, 2021: Enhancement of extremely heavy precipitation induced by Typhoon Hagibis (2019) due to historical warming, SOLA, 17, 7-13.
3. Yamaguchi, M., and S. Maeda, 2020: Slowdown of typhoon translation speeds in mid-latitudes in September influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and global warming, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan., 98, 1321-1334.
4. Yamaguchi, M., and S. Maeda, 2020: Increase in the Number of Tropical Cyclones Approaching Tokyo Since 1980, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 98, 775-786.
5. Yamaguchi, M., J. C. L. Chan, I.-J. Moon, K. Yoshida, and R. Mizuta, 2020: Global warming changes tropical cyclone translation speed, Nature Communications, 11, 47.




Tropical cyclone track

1. Tang, K., J. C. L. Chan, and M. Yamaguchi, 2021: Large Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors of Global Numerical Weather Prediction Models in western North Pacific Basin, Tropical Cyclone Research and Review,10, 151-169.
2. Kawabata, Y., and Yamaguchi, M., 2020: Probability ellipse for tropical cyclone track forecasts with multiple ensembles, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 98, 821-833.
3. Tang, K., J. C. L. Chan, and M. Yamaguchi, 2020: Effects of the Outer Size on Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts, Meteorological Applications, 27. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1888
4. Fukuda, J., and M. Yamaguchi, 2019: Determining 70 Percent Probability-Circle Radii of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts with Multiple Ensembles, SOLA, 15, 250-256.
5. Magnusson, L., J. D. Doyle, W. A. Komaromi, F. Zhang, R. Torn, C. K. Tang, C. L. Chan, and M. Yamaguchi, 2019: Advances in understanding difficult cases of track forecasts, Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 8(3), 109-122.
6. Zhou, F., W. Duan, Z. He, and M. Yamaguchi, 2018: Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part II: Model uncertainty. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 35, 1277-1290.
7. Yamaguchi, M., J. Ishida, H. Sato, and M. Nakagawa, 2017: WGNE Intercomparison of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts by Operational Global Models: A Quarter-Century and Beyond, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 2337-2349.
8. Yasunaga, K., T. Miyajima, and M. Yamaguchi, 2016: Relationships between Tropical Cyclone Motion and Surrounding Flow with Reference to Longest Radius and Maximum Sustained Wind, SOLA, 12, 277-281.
9. Feifan Z., M. Yamaguchi, X. Qin, 2016: Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part I: Initial uncertainties. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 33, 841-851.
10. Nishimura, M. and M. Yamaguchi, 2015: Selective ensemble mean technique for tropical cyclone track forecasts using multi-model ensembles. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review., 4, 71-78.
11. Yamaguchi, M., T. Nakazawa, and S. Hoshino, 2014: North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Project, Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 3, 193-201.
12. Magnusson, L., J.-R. Bidlot, S. Lang, A. Thorpe, N. Wedi, and M. Yamaguchi, 2014: Evaluation of medium-range forecasts for hurricane Sandy, Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 1962-1981.
13. Yamaguchi, M., T. Nakazawa, and S. Hoshino, 2012: On the relative benefits of a multi-centre grand ensemble for tropical cyclone track prediction in the western North Pacific, Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 138, 2019-2029.
14. Yamaguchi, M., T. Nakazawa, and K. Aonashi, 2012: Tropical cyclone track forecasts using JMA model with ECMWF and JMA initial conditions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09801.
15. Miyoshi, T., T. Komori, H. Yonehara, R. Sakai, and M. Yamaguchi, 2010: Impact of resolution transform of the initial condition on typhoon track forecasts, Weather and Forecasting, 25, 1568-1573.




Tropical cyclone intensity

1. Yamaguchi, M., N. Usui, and N. Hirose, 2024: Typhoon Intensity Forecasts using TIFS with Pseudo Ocean Coupling, SOLA. (Accepted)
2. Shimada, U., M. Yamaguchi, and S. Nishimura, 2020: Is the Number of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Events in the Western North Pacific Increasing?, SOLA, 16, 1-5.
3. Yamaguchi, M., H. Owada, U. Shimada, M. Sawada, T. Iriguchi, K. D. Musgrave, and M. DeMaria, 2018: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction in the Western North Pacific Basin using SHIPS and JMA/GSM, SOLA, 14, 138-143.
4. Shimada, U., H. Owada, M. Yamaguchi, T. Iriguchi, M. Sawada, K. Aonashi, M. DeMaria, and K. Musgrave, 2018: Further Improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme Using Tropical Cyclone Rainfall and Structural Features, Wea. Forecasting, 33, 1587-1603.
5. Ito, K., M. Sawada, and M. Yamaguchi, 2018: Tropical cyclone forecasts in the Western North Pacific with high-resolution atmosphere and coupled models, Papers in Meteorology and Geophysics, 67, 15-34.
6. Nakano, M., A. Wada, M. Sawada, H. Yoshimura, R. Onishi, S. Kawahara, W. Sasaki, T. Nasuno, M. Yamaguchi, T. Iriguchi, M. Sugi, and Y. Takeuchi, : Global 7-km mesh nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for improving TYphoon forecast (TYMIP-G7): Experimental design and preliminary results, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. 10, 1363-1381.




Tropical cyclone genesis

1. Liang, M., J. C. L. Chan, J. Xu, and M. Yamaguchi, 2022: Numerical Prediction of Tropical Cyclogenesis Part II: Identification of large-scale physical processes under the monsoon shear line synoptic pattern, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 148, 1965-1982.
2. Liang, M., J. C. L. Chan, J. Xu, and M. Yamaguchi, 2020: Numerical Prediction of Tropical Cyclogenesis Part I: Evaluation of Model Performance, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 147, 1626-1641.
3. Fudeyasu. H., R. Yoshida, M. Yamaguchi, H. Eito, C. Muroi, S. Nishimura, K. Bessho, Y. Oikawa, and N. Koide, 2020: Development Conditions for Tropical Storms over the Western North Pacific Stratified by Large-scale Flow Patterns, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 98, 61-72.
4. Camargo, S. J., J. Camp, R. L. Elsberry, P. A. Gregory, P. J. Klotzbach, C. J. Schreck III, A. H. Sobel, M. J. Ventrice, F. Vitart, Z. Wang, M. C. Wheeler, M. Yamaguchi, and R. Zhan, 2019: Tropical Cyclone Prediction on Subseasonal Time-Scales, Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 8(3), 150-165.
5. Yamaguchi, M., and N. Koide, 2017: Tropical cyclone genesis guidance using the early stage Dvorak analysis and global ensembles, Wea. Forecasting, 32, 2133-2141.
6. Yamaguchi, M., F. Vitart, S. T. K. Lang, L. Magnusson, R. L. Elsberry, G. Elliott, M. Kyouda, and T. Nakazawa, 2015: Global distribution on the skill of tropical cyclone activity forecasts from short- to medium-range time scales. Weather and Forecasting. 30, 1695-1709.




Ensemble forecasting

1. Woolnough, S. J., F. Vitart, A. W. Robertson, C. A. S. Coelho, R. Lee, H. Lin, A. Kumar, C. Stan, M. Balmaseda, N. Caltabiano, M. Yamaguchi, H. Afargan-Gerstman, V. L. Boult, F. M. De Andrade, D. B�«äeler, A. Carreric, D. A. Campos Diaz, J. Day, J. Dorrington, M. Feldmann, J. C. Furtado, C. M. Grams, R. Koster, L. Hirons, V. S. Indasi, P. Jadhav, Y. Liu, P. Nying¡Çuro, C. D. Roberts, E. Rouges, and J. Ryu, 2024: Celebrating 10 Years of the Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project and Looking to the Future, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 105, E521-E526.
2. Jason P. Dunion, C. Davis, H. Titley, H. Greatrex, M. Yamaguchi, J. Methven, R. Ashrit, Z. Wang, H. Yu, A.-C. Fontan, A. Brammer, M. Kucas, M. Ford, P. Papin, F. Prates, C. Mooney, A. Kruczkiewicz, P. Chakraborty, A. Burton, M. DeMaria, R. Torn, J. L. Vigh, 2023: Recommendations for improved tropical cyclone formation and position probabilistic forecast products, Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 12, 241-258.
3. Yamaguchi, M., T. Nakaegawa, and L. Magnusson, 2023: Utilizing Ensemble Reforecast Data for Reservoir Operation, Journal of Japan Society of Hydrology & Water Resources, 36, 52-62.
4. Titley, H. A., M. Yamaguchi, L. Magnusson, 2019: Current and potential use of ensemble forecasts in operational TC forecasting: results from a global forecaster survey, Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 8(3), 166-180.
5. Swinbank, R., M. Kyouda, P. Buchanan, L. Froude, T. M. Hamill, T. D. Hewson, J. H. Keller, M. Matsueda, J. Methven, F. Pappenberger, M. Scheuerer, H. A. Titley, L. Wilson, and M. Yamaguchi, 2016: The TIGGE Project and its Achievements, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. 97, 49-67.
6. Yamaguchi, M., S. Lang, M. Leutbecher, M. Rodwell, G. Radnoti and N. Bormann, 2016: Observation-based evaluation of ensemble reliability. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 142, 506-514.
7. Rodwell, M. J., S. T. K. Lang, N. B. Ingleby, N. Bormann, E. H©élm, F. Rabier, D. S. Richardson , and M. Yamaguchi, 2016: Reliability in Ensemble Data Assimilation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc, 142, 443-454.
8. Yamaguchi, M., D. S. Nolan, M. Iskandarani, S. J. Majumdar, M. S. Peng, and C. A. Reynolds, 2011: Singular vectors for tropical cyclone-like vortices in a nondivergent barotropic framework, J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 2273-2291.
9. Kunii, M., K. Saito, H. Seko, M. Hara, T. Hara, M. Yamaguchi, G. Jiandong, M. Charron, J. Du, Y. Wang, and D. Chen, 2011: Verifications and Intercomparisons of Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction Systems in B08RDP, Tellus, 63A, 531-549.
10. Saito, K., M. Hara, H. Seko, M. Kunii, and M. Yamaguchi, 2011: Mesoscale ensemble pediction system of MRI/JMA at B08RDP. Part1: Comparison of initial perturbation methods, Tellus, 63A, 445-467.
11. Yamaguchi, M., and S. J. Majumdar, 2010: Using TIGGE data to diagnose initial perturbations and their growth for tropical cyclone ensemble forecasts, Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 3634-3655.
12. Yamaguchi, M., R. Sakai, M. Kyoda, T. Komori, and T. Kadowaki, 2009: Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System developed at the Japan Meteorological Agency, Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2592-2604.




Aircraft observation / Adaptive observation

1. Yamada, H., K. Ito, K. Tsuboki, T. Shinoda, T. Ohigashi, M. Yamaguchi, T. Nakazawa, N. Nagahama, and K. Shimizu, 2020: The Double Warm-Core Structure of Typhoon Lan (2017) as Observed through the First Japanese Eyewall-Penetrating Aircraft Reconnaissance, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 99, 1297-1327.
2. Ito, K., H. Yamada, M. Yamaguchi, T. Nakazawa, N. Nagahama, K. Shimizu, T. Ohigashi, T. Shinoda, K. Tsuboki, Analysis and Forecast Using Dropsonde Data from the Inner-Core Region of Tropical Cyclone Lan (2017), 2018: Obtained during the First Aircraft Missions of T-PARCII, SOLA, 14, 105-110.
3. Yamaguchi, M., T. Iriguchi, T. Nakazawa, and C.-C. Wu, 2009: An observing system experiment for Typhoon Conson (2004) using a singular vector method and DOTSTAR data, Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2801-2816.
4. Wu, C.-C., J.-H. Chen, S. Majumdar, M. Peng, C. Reynolds, S. Aberson, R. Buizza, M. Yamaguchi, S.-G. Chen, T. Nakazawa, and K.-H. Chou, 2009: Inter-comparison of Targeted Observation Guidances for Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific, Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2471-2492.