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Research on the improvement of typhoon track forecasting and objective intensity analysis

The aim of this research is to further improve typhoon track forecasting and objective typhoon intensity analysis in order to mitigate the effects of typhoon-related disasters. We have addressed the development of a data assimilation system and a global atmosphere model based on the use of satellite and ground-level observation data, and have also worked to develop an objective method for estimating typhoon intensity metrics such as maximum sustained wind speed and central pressure. Numerical simulation has also been performed using a sophisticated numerical model in order to identify factors responsible for typhoon forecast errors and processes associated with typhoon intensification and structural change. When a major typhoon disaster occurs in Japan with serious social impacts, a quick analysis of atmospheric and oceanic conditions is done for a preliminary report.

Subproject 1: Research on improvement of tropical cyclone track forecast using global/regional NWP systems to analyze and forecast TCs

Subproject 2: Research on estimating intensity of tropical cyclones and elucidating their rapid intensification, structure change, and their predictability

A typhoon structure simulated using a numerical model. Water content in clouds (gray shading) swirls near the surface, forms a cylinder in the vicinity of the typhoon center and spreads through the upper troposphere. The colors show the distribution of sea surface temperature (SST). The warm colors correspond to warm SST. The typhoon-induced sea surface cooling is also simulated as shown in the green-to-yellow shadings beneath the typhoon.

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