Research on immediate monitoring and accurate prediction of volcanic phenomena caused by large-scale eruption

Large-scale volcanic eruptions cause damage due to volcanic ash fallout over wide areas. We are studying an immediate monitoring technique for large-scale eruptions using data from weather radar, meteorological satellites and other instruments. The data obtained help to elucidate volcanic ash transport, improvement of initial conditions (for the Eruption Column Model) and the Atmospheric Transport Model. The results of the research are expected to help improve JMA’s Volcanic Ash Fall Forecast and Volcanic Ash Advisory.

Examples of ash fall amount prediction for the Ho-ei eruption of Mt. Fuji about 300 years ago. The spread of fallout changes with atmospheric conditions. Left: summer with weak wind; right: winter with strong westerly wind.