Research on advanced tsunami forecasting methods

To contribute to the improvement of tsunami warnings/advisories issued by JMA, MRI works on the development of methods to quickly forecast coastal tsunami waveforms utilizing offshore tsunami observation data, as well as accurate methods of monitoring actual offshore tsunami distribution.

MRI also researches the characteristics of the later phases and the decay processes of tsunamis to support the lifting of tsunami warnings with appropriate timing.

Schematic illustration of a procedure in quick forecasting of coastal tsunami waveforms based on estimation of initial tsunami height distribution utilizing offshore tsunami observation data.

MRI retrospectively applied its forecasting method to the tsunami generated by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. The results suggest that the method could have provided tsunami information with a lead time of more than 5 minutes for tsunamis with heights of 5 ‒ 10 m along the Sanriku coast.