ÿþ<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <!-- saved from url=(0051)http://www.mri-jma.go.jp/Project/2-11/2-11-sjis.htm --> <HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Research on mesoscale data assimilation and ensemble forecast </TITLE> <META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=Shift_JIS"> <META content="MSHTML 6.00.2900.3059" name=GENERATOR> <META http-equiv=Content-Style-Type content=text/css><LINK title=style href="../style/style_kadai.css" type=text/css rel=stylesheet></HEAD> <BODY> <H4>Research on mesoscale data assimilation and ensemble forecast</H4> <TABLE width="90%" border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD width="7%"></TD> <TD width="83%" bgColor=#eeeeee>Subprogram 10Development of advanced mesoscale data assimilation methods</TD></TR> <TR> <TD width="7%"></TD> <TD width="83%" bgColor=#eeeeee>Subprogram 20Development of utilization techniques of observation data</TD></TR> <TR> <TD width="7%"></TD> <TD width="83%" bgColor=#eeeeee>Subprogram 30Development of mesoscale ensemble prediction methods</TD></TR> <TR> <P></P> <TABLE width="100%" border=0> <TBODY> <BR><BR> <TR> <TD width="18%">Period</TD> <TD width="82%">F. Y. 2009  F. Y. 2013</TD></TR> <TR> <TD width="18%">Chief Scientist</TD> <TD width="82%">Kazuo Saito (Forecast Research Department)0</TD></TR> <TR> <TD vAlign=top width="18%"><br>Departments in charge</TD> <TD width="82%"><br>Forecast Research Department, Typhoon Research Department, Meteorological Satellite and Observation System Research Department<BR></TD></TR> <TR> <TD vAlign=top width="18%"><br>Purposes</TD> <TD width="82%"><br>0 Advanced data assimilation methods which utilize remote sensing observation data are developed to improve the short range quantitative precipitation forecasts in the local municipal scale. Mesoscale ensemble prediction methods are developed to add information of reliability and probability to the short range weather forecast. </TD></TR> <TR> <TD vAlign=top width="18%"><br>Objectives</TD> <TD width="82%">0 <OL> <LI>Development of advanced mesoscale data assimilation methods<BR> <ul> <li>Development of NHM-4DVAR.</li> <li>Development of a variational data assimilation method using ensemble predictions.</li> <li>Development of the Local Ensemble Transformed Kalman Filter (LETKF) techniques.</li> <li>Improvement of initial fields for typhoon predictions and data assimilation studies in the tropics.</li> </ul><br> <LI>Development of utilization techniques of observation data<BR> <ul> <li>Development of data assimilation techniques for microwave radiometer data.</li> <li>Development of data assimilation techniques for GPS data.</li> <li>Data assimilation studies using NHM-4DVAR.</li> <li>Data assimilation studies using the Local Ensemble Transformed Kalman Filter (LETKF).</li> </ul><br> <LI>Development of mesoscale ensemble prediction methods<BR> <ul> <li>Development of initial / lateral boundary perturbation methods. </li> <li>Development of physical process perturbation methods.</li> <li>Evaluation of reliability and probability information in predictions.</li> <li>Studies of ensemble prediction in the tropics.</li> </ul> </TD></TR> </TR></TBODY></TABLE> <P align=center><A href="./fig2-12a.png"><IMG height=480 src="./fig2-12a.png" width=640 vspace=45 border=2> </A></P></BODY></HTML>