Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change around Japan due to the Global Warming

日本語 / English
Research period FY2005-2009
Project Leader Dr. Akio Kitoh (Climate Research Department)
Departments in charge Climate Res. Dept. Atmos. Environ. & Appl. Meteor. Res. Dept. Oceanogr. Res. Dept

Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) has carried out climate change projection with the global climate model that has about 280 km mesh, and the results make an important contribution to the 4th Assessment Report of IPCC. The results also utilized to drive the MRI regional climate model (RCM) with 20 km mesh to make projection of climate change in Japan. The information on the regional climate changes, in temperature, precipitation etc., are presented for several climatological partitions, such as North Japan, East Japan, and West Japan, or the Sea of Japan side and the Pacific side. Since the global warming is now unequivocal, more detailed and accurate information is demanded from water resources, disaster prevention, agriculture, forestry, and other industries, and human health, for the purpose of making adaptation and mitigation. For these requests, MRI launched a 5-year research project "Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change around Japan due to the Global Warming" in FY2005. In this research project, we develop "cloud resolving regional climate model" that explicitly treats clouds with 4 km mesh, which has capability of projections for small scale phenomena reflecting detailed orography in Japan, such as heavy rainfall and frequency of extreme events. We also develop "MRI Earth System Model (MRI-ESM)" in order to reduce uncertainty of global warming projection. Based on the state-of-the- art global climate model, carbon cycle processes in land and ocean, source and transport of aerosols, and chemical reactions of trace gases including ozone are modeled and integrated into the earth system model. Change in ice sheets, which is an important factor to the sea level change, will also be capable with the model. The target of this project is to provide detailed climate change information around Japan to promote adaptation and mitigation for the global warming in Japan, based on the simulation with the sophisticated regional climate model, fed by reduced uncertainty with the earth system model.
Outline (1) Development of Earth System Model for Global Warming Projection
　We also develop "MRI Earth System Model (MRI-ESM)" in order to reduce uncertainty of global warming projection. Based on the state-of-the-art global climate model, carbon cycle processes in land and ocean, source and transport of aerosols, and chemical reactions of trace gases including ozone are modeled and integrated into the earth system model. Change in ice sheets, which is an important factor to the sea level change, will also be capable with the model.

(2) Development of Cloud-Resolving Regional Climate Model
　In this research project, we develop "cloud resolving regional climate model" that explicitly treats clouds with 4 km mesh, which has capability of projections for small scale phenomena reflecting detailed orography in Japan, such as heavy rainfall and frequency of extreme events.
Publications List

2008

(1) Development of Earth System Model for Global Warming Projection
  • Krishnan, R., V. Kumar, M. Sugi, and J. Yoshimura, 2008: Internal-feedbacks from monsoon- midlatitude interactions during droughts in the Indian summer monsoon. Accepted to J. Atmos. Sci.
  • Yoshimura, H. and S. Yukimoto, 2008: Development of a Simple Coupler (Scup) for Earth System Modeling. Papers in Meteorology and Geophysics, 59, 19-29.
  • Kyung-Sook Yun, Sun-Hee Shin, Kyung-Ja Ha, Akio Kitoh and Shoji Kusunoki, 2008: East Asian Precipitation Change in the Global Warming Climate Simulated by a 20-km Mesh AGCM. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 44, 3, 233-247
  • Shoji Kusunoki, Ryo Mizuta, 2008: Future Changes in the Baiu Rain Band Projected by a 20-km Mesh Global Atmospheric Model: Sea Surface Temperature Dependence. SOLA, 4, 85-88
  • Kitoh, A., 2008: Climate change. In: Asia-Pacific Coasts and Their Management: States of Environment. [Mimura, N. (ed.)], Springer, The Netherlands, 18-25.
  • Scaife, A.A., F. Kucharski, C. K. Folland, J. Kinter, S. Bronnimann, D. Fereday, A. M. Fischer, S. Grainger, E. K. Jin, I. S. Kang, J. R. Knight, S. Kusunoki, N. C. Lau, M. J. Nath, T. Nakaegawa, P. Pegion, S. Schubert, P. Sporyshev, J. Syktus, J. H. Yoon, N. Zeng and T. Zhou, 2008:The CLIVAR C20C project: selected twentieth century climate events. Clim. Dyn., DOI 10.1007/s00382-008-0451-1
(2) Development of Cloud-Resolving Regional Climate Model
  • Sasaki, H., K. Kurihara, 2008: Relationship between Precipitation and Elevation in the Present Climate Reproduced by the Non-hydrostatic Regional Climate Model, SOLA, 4, 109-112, doi: 10.2151/sola.2008-028.
  • Sasaki, H., K. Kurihara, I. Takayabu and T. Uchiyama, 2008: Preliminary experiments of reproducing the present climate using the non-hydrostatic regional climate model, SOLA, 4, 25-28, doi: 10.2151/sola.2008-007.

2007

(1) Development of Earth System Model for Global Warming Projection
  • Eyring, V., D. W. Waugh, G. E. Bodeker, E. Cordero, H. Akiyoshi, J. Austin, S. R. Beagley, B. A. Boville, P. Braesicke, C. Bruhl, N. Butchart, M. P. Chipperfield, M. Dameris, R. Deckert, M. Deushi, S. M. Frith, R. R. Garcia, A. Gettelman, M. A. Giorgetta, D. E. Kinnison, E. Mancini, E. Manzini, D. R. Marsh, S. Matthes, T. Nagashima, P. A. Newman, J. E. Nielsen, S. Pawson, G. Pitari, D. A. Plummer, E. Rozanov, M. Schraner, J. F. Scinocca, K. Semeniuk, T. G. Shepherd, K. Shibata, B. Steil, R. S. Stolarski, W. Tian, and M. Yoshiki., 2007: Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D16205, doi:10.1029/2007JD008432.
  • Meehl, G.A., T.F. Stocker, W.D. Collins, P. Friedlingstein, A.T. Gaye, J.M. Gregory, A. Kitoh, R. Knutti, J.M. Murphy, A. Noda, S.C.B. Raper, I.G. Watterson, A.J. Weaver and Z.-C. Zhao, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 747-845.
  • Kuroda, Y., M. Deushi, and K. Shibata., 2007: Role of solar activity in the troposphere-stratosphere coupling in the southern hemisphere winter, Geophys. Res. Lett., L21704, doi:10.1029/2007GL030983.
  • Obata, A., 2007: Climate-carbon cycle model response to freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic. J. Climate, 20, 5962-5976.
  • Seiji Yukimoto, Kunihiko Kodera, 2007: Annular Modes forced from the Stratosphere and Interactions with the Oceans. J. Mete. Soc. Japan, vol.85, 943-952, 2007
(2) Development of Cloud-Resolving Regional Climate Model
  • Takayabu, I., H. Kato, K. Nishizawa, Y.N. Takayabu, Y. Sato, H. Sasaki, K, Kurihara and A. Kitoh, 2007: Future projections in precipitation over Asia simulated by two RCMs nested into MRI-CGCM2.2. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 85, 511-519.

2006

(1) Development of Earth System Model for Global Warming Projection
  • Kitoh, A. and T. Uchiyama, 2006: Changes in onset and withdrawal of the East Asian summer rainy season by multi-model global warming experiments. J.Meteor. Soc. Japan, 84, 247-258.
  • Yamaguchi, K., and A. Noda, 2006: Global Warming Patterns over the North Pacific: ENSO versus AO. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 84, 221-241.
  • Yukimoto, S., A. Noda, A. Kitoh, M. Hosaka, H. Yoshimura, T. Uchiyama, K. Shibata, O. Arakawa, and S. Kusunoki, 2006: Present-day climate and climate sensitivity in the Meteorological Research Institute Coupled GCM version 2. 3(MRI-CGCM2. 3). J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 84, 333-363.
(2) Development of Cloud-Resolving Regional Climate Model
  • Sasaki, H., K. Kurihara, I. Takayabu, K. Murazaki, Y. Sato and H. Tsujino, 2006: Preliminary results from the Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Regional Climate Model at the Meteorological Rasearch Institute. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 84, 389-403.
  • Sato Y., S. Yukimoto, H. Tsujino, H. Ishizaki and A. Noda, 2006: Response of North Pacific ocean circulation in a Kuroshio-resolving ocean model to an Arctic Oscillation (AO)-like change in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation due to greenhouse-gas forcing. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 84, 295-309.

2005

(1) Development of Earth System Model for Global Warming Projection
  • Ashrit, R., A. Kitoh and S. Yukimoto, 2005: Transient response of ENSO-monsoon teleconnection in MRI-CGCM2.2 climate change simulations. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 83, 273-291.
  • Kitoh, A., M. Hosaka, Y. Adachi and K. Kamiguchi, 2005: Future projections of precipitation characteristics in East Asia simulated by the MRI CGCM2. Adv.Atmos. Sci., 22, 467-478.
  • Yamaguchi, K., A. Noda, and A. Kitoh, 2005: The changes in permafrost induced by greenhouse warming: A numerical study applying multiple-layer ground model. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 83, 799-815.
  • Yoshizaki, M., C. Muroi, S. Kanada, Y. Wakazuki, K. Yasunaga, A. Hashimoto, T. Kato, K. Kurihara, A. Noda, and S. Kusunoki, 2005: Changes of Baiu(Mei-yu) frontal activity in the global warming climate simulated by a non-hydrostatic regional model. SOLA, 1, 25-28, doi: 10.2151/sola.2005- 008.
(2) Development of Cloud-Resolving Regional Climate Model
  • Kurihara K., K. Ishihara, H. Sasaki, Y. Fukuyama, H. Saitou, I. Takayabu, K. Murazaki, S. Yukimoto and A. Noda, 2005: Projection of climatic change over Japan due to global warming by high-resolution regional climate model in MRI. SOLA, 1, 97-100, doi: 10.2151/SOLA.2005-026.
  • Murazaki, K., H. Sasaki, H. Tsujino, I. Takayabu, Y. Sato, H. Ishizaki and K. Kurihara, 2005: Climatic change projection for the ocean around Japan using a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate model. SOLA, 1, 101-104, doi: 102151/sola 2005-027.
  • Sasaki, H., K. Kurihara, I. Takayabu, 2005: Comparison of climate reproducebility between a super-high resolution atmosphere general circulation model and a Meteorological Research Institute regional climate model. SOLA, 1, 81-84, doi:10.2151/SOLA2005-022.

Presentations List


2007

Third China-Korea-Japan Joint Conference on Meteorology
  • A. Kitoh and collaborators, 2007.11.15: Next generation model development at MRI.　Third China-Korea-Japan Joint Conference on Meteorology, November 13-16, 2007, Beijing, China.
Japan-Taiwan Joint Workshop for the EAMEX and MAHAASRI
  • A. Kitoh, 2007.12.18: Recent climate modeling activity at MRI. Japan-Taiwan Joint Workshop for the EAMEX and MAHAASRI, 17-18 December 2007, Goura, Hakone, Japan.

JMA > MRI > Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change around Japan due to the Global Warming

Dec.2008
by Team GW of MRI
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