Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change around Japan due to the Global Warming

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Research period FY2005-2009
Project Leader Dr. Akio Kitoh (Climate Research Department)
Departments in charge Climate Res. Dept. Atmos. Environ. & Appl. Meteor. Res. Dept. Oceanogr. Res. Dept

Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) has carried out climate change projection with the global climate model that has about 280 km mesh, and the results make an important contribution to the 4th Assessment Report of IPCC. The results also utilized to drive the MRI regional climate model (RCM) with 20 km mesh to make projection of climate change in Japan. The information on the regional climate changes, in temperature, precipitation etc., are presented for several climatological partitions, such as North Japan, East Japan, and West Japan, or the Sea of Japan side and the Pacific side. Since the global warming is now unequivocal, more detailed and accurate information is demanded from water resources, disaster prevention, agriculture, forestry, and other industries, and human health, for the purpose of making adaptation and mitigation. For these requests, MRI launched a 5-year research project "Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change around Japan due to the Global Warming" in FY2005. In this research project, we develop "cloud resolving regional climate model" that explicitly treats clouds with 4 km mesh, which has capability of projections for small scale phenomena reflecting detailed orography in Japan, such as heavy rainfall and frequency of extreme events. We also develop "MRI Earth System Model (MRI-ESM)" in order to reduce uncertainty of global warming projection. Based on the state-of-the- art global climate model, carbon cycle processes in land and ocean, source and transport of aerosols, and chemical reactions of trace gases including ozone are modeled and integrated into the earth system model. Change in ice sheets, which is an important factor to the sea level change, will also be capable with the model. The target of this project is to provide detailed climate change information around Japan to promote adaptation and mitigation for the global warming in Japan, based on the simulation with the sophisticated regional climate model, fed by reduced uncertainty with the earth system model.

Outline (1) Development of Earth System Model for Global Warming Projection
?We also develop "MRI Earth System Model (MRI-ESM)" in order to reduce uncertainty of global warming projection. Based on the state-of-the-art global climate model, carbon cycle processes in land and ocean, source and transport of aerosols, and chemical reactions of trace gases including ozone are modeled and integrated into the earth system model. Change in ice sheets, which is an important factor to the sea level change, will also be capable with the model.

(2) Development of Cloud-Resolving Regional Climate Model
?In this research project, we develop "cloud resolving regional climate model" that explicitly treats clouds with 4 km mesh, which has capability of projections for small scale phenomena reflecting detailed orography in Japan, such as heavy rainfall and frequency of extreme events.



Publications

(1) Development of Earth System Model for Global Warming Projection
  • Ashrit, R., A. Kitoh and S. Yukimoto, 2005: Transient response of ENSO-monsoon teleconnection in MRI-CGCM2.2 climate change simulations. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 83, 273-291.
  • Bates, B.C., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu and J.P. Palutikof (Eds.), 2008 : Climate Change and Water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 pp.
  • Cagnazzo, C., Manzini, E., Calvo, N., Douglass, A., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Chipperfield, M., Dameris, M., Deushi, M., Fischer, A. M., Garny, H., Gettelman, A., Giorgetta, M. A., Plummer, D., Rozanov, E., Shepherd, T. G., Shibata, K., Stenke, A., Struthers, H., and Tian, W.:2009 Northern winter stratospheric temperature and ozone responses to ENSO inferred from an ensemble of Chemistry Climate Models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 8935-8948,
  • Eyring, V., D. W. Waugh, G. E. Bodeker, E. Cordero, H. Akiyoshi, J. Austin, S. R. Beagley, B. A. Boville, P. Braesicke, C. Bruhl, N. Butchart, M. P. Chipperfield, M. Dameris, R. Deckert, M. Deushi, S. M. Frith, R. R. Garcia, A. Gettelman, M. A. Giorgetta, D. E. Kinnison, E. Mancini, E. Manzini, D. R. Marsh, S. Matthes, T. Nagashima, P. A. Newman, J. E. Nielsen, S. Pawson, G. Pitari, D. A. Plummer, E. Rozanov, M. Schraner, J. F. Scinocca, K. Semeniuk, T. G. Shepherd, K. Shibata, B. Steil, R. S. Stolarski, W. Tian, and M. Yoshiki., 2007: Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D16205, doi:10.1029/2007JD008432.
  • Kitoh, A., M. Hosaka, Y. Adachi and K. Kamiguchi, 2005: Future projections of precipitation characteristics in East Asia simulated by the MRI CGCM2. Adv.Atmos. Sci., 22, 467-478.
  • Kitoh, A. and T. Uchiyama, 2006: Changes in onset and withdrawal of the East Asian summer rainy season by multi-model global warming experiments. J.Meteor. Soc. Japan, 84, 247-258.
  • Kitoh, A., 2008: Climate change. In: Asia-Pacific Coasts and Their Management: States of Environment. [Mimura, N. (ed.)], Springer, The Netherlands, 18-25.
  • Krishnan, R., V. Kumar, M. Sugi, and J. Yoshimura, 2008: Internal-feedbacks from monsoon- midlatitude interactions during droughts in the Indian summer monsoon. Accepted to J. Atmos. Sci.
  • Kusunoki, S., T. Nakaegawa, O. Arakawa, and I. Yagai, 2009: Simulations of land-surface air temperature and land precipitation in the twentieth century by the MJ98 AGCM. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 87, 473-495.
  • Kuroda, Y., M. Deushi, and K. Shibata., 2007: Role of solar activity in the troposphere-stratosphere coupling in the southern hemisphere winter, Geophys. Res. Lett., L21704, doi:10.1029/2007GL030983.
  • Meehl, G.A., T.F. Stocker, W.D. Collins, P. Friedlingstein, A.T. Gaye, J.M. Gregory, A. Kitoh, R. Knutti, J.M. Murphy, A. Noda, S.C.B. Raper, I.G. Watterson, A.J. Weaver and Z.-C. Zhao, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 747-845.
  • Obata, A., 2007: Climate-carbon cycle model response to freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic. J. Climate, 20, 5962-5976.
  • Scaife, A.A., F. Kucharski, C. K. Folland, J. Kinter, S. Bronnimann, D. Fereday, A. M. Fischer, S. Grainger, E. K. Jin, I. S. Kang, J. R. Knight, S. Kusunoki, N. C. Lau, M. J. Nath, T. Nakaegawa, P. Pegion, S. Schubert, P. Sporyshev, J. Syktus, J. H. Yoon, N. Zeng and T. Zhou, 2008:The CLIVAR C20C project: selected twentieth century climate events. Clim. Dyn., DOI 10.1007/s00382-008-0451-1
  • Shoji Kusunoki, Ryo Mizuta, 2008: Future Changes in the Baiu Rain Band Projected by a 20-km Mesh Global Atmospheric Model: Sea Surface Temperature Dependence. SOLA, 4, 85-88
  • Yamaguchi, K., A. Noda, and A. Kitoh, 2005: The changes in permafrost induced by greenhouse warming: A numerical study applying multiple-layer ground model. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 83, 799-815.
  • Yamaguchi, K., and A. Noda, 2006: Global Warming Patterns over the North Pacific: ENSO versus AO. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 84, 221-241.
  • Yoshimura, H. and S. Yukimoto, 2008: Development of a Simple Coupler (Scup) for Earth System Modeling. Papers in Meteorology and Geophysics, 59, 19-29.
  • Yoshizaki, M., C. Muroi, S. Kanada, Y. Wakazuki, K. Yasunaga, A. Hashimoto, T. Kato, K. Kurihara, A. Noda, and S. Kusunoki, 2005: Changes of Baiu(Mei-yu) frontal activity in the global warming climate simulated by a non-hydrostatic regional model. SOLA, 1, 25-28, doi: 10.2151/sola.2005- 008.
  • Yukimoto, S., A. Noda, A. Kitoh, M. Hosaka, H. Yoshimura, T. Uchiyama, K. Shibata, O. Arakawa, and S. Kusunoki, 2006: Present-day climate and climate sensitivity in the Meteorological Research Institute Coupled GCM version 2. 3(MRI-CGCM2. 3). J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 84, 333-363.
  • Yukimoto, S., A. Noda, T. Uchiyama, S. Kusunoki and A. Kitoh, 2006 : Climate changes of the twentieth through twenty-first centuries simulated by the MRI-CGCM2.3. Pap. Meteor. Geophys., 56, 9-24
  • Yukimoto,S., Kodera,K., 2007: Annular Modes forced from the Stratosphere and Interactions with the Oceans. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Spetial Edition"Arctic Oscillation", vol.85, 943-952, 2007
  • Kyung-Sook Yun, Sun-Hee Shin, Kyung-Ja Ha, Akio Kitoh and Shoji Kusunoki, 2008: East Asian Precipitation Change in the Global Warming Climate Simulated by a 20-km Mesh AGCM. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 44, 3, 233-247
  • Zhao, Z., A. Kitoh and D.-K. Lee, 2008 : Warming in East Asia as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gases. In: Changes in the Human-Monsoon System of East Asia in the Context of Global Change. (C. Fu, J.R. Freney and J.W.B. Stewart, Eds.), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., 105-114.
(2) Development of Cloud-Resolving Regional Climate Model
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  • Kurihara K., K. Ishihara, H. Sasaki, Y. Fukuyama, H. Saitou, I. Takayabu, K. Murazaki, S. Yukimoto and A. Noda, 2005: Projection of climatic change over Japan due to global warming by high-resolution regional climate model in MRI. SOLA, 1, 97-100, doi: 10.2151/SOLA.2005-026.
  • Murazaki, K., H. Sasaki, H. Tsujino, I. Takayabu, Y. Sato, H. Ishizaki and K. Kurihara, 2005: Climatic change projection for the ocean around Japan using a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate model. SOLA, 1, 101-104, doi: 102151/sola 2005-027.
  • Sasaki, H., K. Kurihara, 2008: Relationship between Precipitation and Elevation in the Present Climate Reproduced by the Non-hydrostatic Regional Climate Model, SOLA, 4, 109-112, doi: 10.2151/sola.2008-028.
  • Sasaki, H., K. Kurihara, I. Takayabu, 2005: Comparison of climate reproducebility between a super-high resolution atmosphere general circulation model and a Meteorological Research Institute regional climate model. SOLA, 1, 81-84, doi:10.2151/SOLA2005-022.
  • Sasaki, H., K. Kurihara, I. Takayabu and T. Uchiyama, 2008: Preliminary experiments of reproducing the present climate using the non-hydrostatic regional climate model, SOLA, 4, 25-28, doi: 10.2151/sola.2008-007.
  • Sasaki, H., K. Kurihara, I. Takayabu, K. Murazaki, Y. Sato and H. Tsujino, 2006: Preliminary results from the Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Regional Climate Model at the Meteorological Rasearch Institute. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 84, 389-403.
  • Sato Y., S. Yukimoto, H. Tsujino, H. Ishizaki and A. Noda, 2006: Response of North Pacific ocean circulation in a Kuroshio-resolving ocean model to an Arctic Oscillation (AO)-like change in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation due to greenhouse-gas forcing. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 84, 295-309.
  • Sato, T., F. Kimura and A. Kitoh, 2007: Projection of global warming onto regional precipitation over Mongolia using a regional climate model. Journal of Hydrology, 333, 144-154.
  • Takayabu, I., H. Kato, K. Nishizawa, Y.N. Takayabu, Y. Sato, H. Sasaki, K. Kurihara and A. Kitoh, 2007: Future projections in precipitation over Asia simulated by two RCMs nested into MRI-CGCM2.2. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 85, 511-519.
    *Papers using the RCM20
  • Iizumi, T., M. Nishimori and M. Yokozawa, 2008: Combined equations for estimating global solar radiation: Projection of radiation field over Japan under global warming condition by statistical downscaling. J. Agric, Meteor, 64, 9-23.
  • Yokozawa, M., S. Goto, Y. Hayashi and Seino, 2003: Mesh climate data for evaluation climate change impacts in Japan under gradually increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Jounal of Agricultural Meteorology, 59(2), 117-130.

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Presentations


(1) Development of Earth System Model for Global Warming Projection
  • Ha, K.-J., K.-S. Yun, S.-S. Lee, S.-R. Jang, A. Kitoh and S. Kusunoki, 2007.:Changes in the dominant patterns of Changma and rainy season. Third China-Korea-Japan Joint Conference on Meteorology, November 13-16, 2007, Beijing, China.
  • Kitoh, A, 2006: East Asian monsoons in the future projected by IPCC AR4 models. East Asia Climate (EAC) Workshop, March 31-April 1, 2006, Nantou, Taiwan.
  • Kitoh, A, 2006: Monsoon simulations for the past, present and future by a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. Fourth International Symposium of IGCP-476, Septemebr 3-6, 2006, Pusan National University, Pusan, Korea.
  • Kitoh, A., 2007: Asia-Pacific climate in the future. Korean Meteorological Society Symposium Global Warming and Its Socio-Economic Impacts, 21 March 2007, Seoul, Korea. [Invited]
  • Kitoh, A., 2007: How robust is the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection? JMS011: Monsoon Systems, IUGG2007, July 2-13, 2007, Perugia, Italy. [Invited]
  • Kitoh, A., 2007: Projection of the change in future weather extremes. 2nd Asian Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, 7-8 November 2007, New Delhi, India. [Invited]
  • Kitoh,A., 2007: Recent climate modeling activity at MRI. Japan-Taiwan Joint Workshop for the EAMEX and MAHAASRI, 17-18 December 2007, Goura,Hakone, Japan.
  • Kitoh,A. and collaborators, 2007: Next generation model development at MRI.?Third China-Korea-Japan Joint Conference on Meteorology, November 13-16,2007,Beijing,Chaina.13-16, 2007, Beijing, China.
  • Kitoh, A., 2008: Simulation and projections of monsoon variability over South and East Asia. Institute on "The Asian Monsoon System: Prediction of Change and Variability", 2-12 January 2008, East-West Center, Honolulu, USA. [Invited Lecture]
  • Kitoh, A., 2008: Impact of climate change on Asian monsoon characteristics. WMO 4th International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-IV), 20-25 October 2008, Beijing,
  • Kitoh,A., M. Hosaka and K. Kamiguchi, 2008: Impact of climate change on precipitation and riverflow. Symposium on Science and Practice of Basin-scale Water Policy for Population Upsurging Asia, National Museum of Emerging Science and Inovation,Tokyo.
  • Kitoh, A., 2009: How is the climate of Japan changing and projected to change? ,Japan-British Workshop:Climate modeling and Buisiness risks,British Embasy,Tokyo.
  • Kitoh, A., 2009: Climate modeling for adaptation to climate change in Asia. The Third GEOSS Asia-Pacific Symposium, 4-6 February 2009, Kyoto Research Park, Kyoto, Japan.
  • Kitoh, A., 2009: Climate modeling activity in Japan. The Third GEOSS Asia-Pacific Symposium, 4-6 February 2009, Kyoto Research Park, Kyoto, Japan.
  • Kitoh, A., 2009: Toward seasonal climate forecasting and climate projections in future. Tokyo Climate Conference, Tokyo. [Keynote Lecture]
  • Kitoh, A., 2009: Climate change projection for adaptation. Forum for Centennial Strategy for Adapting Climate Change and Reducing Water-related Disaster Risks, 29 September 2009, MITA KAIGISHO, Tokyo. [Keynote Speech]
  • Kitoh, A., 2009: Climate change projection for adaptation. National Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Change in the Philippines: Development of Climate Change Scenarios, 19 October 2009, Torre Venezia Hotel, Quezon City, Philippines. [Keynote Speech]
  • Kitoh, A., 2009: Climate change projection for adaptation. Local Seminar in Indonesia on the JICA regional training course "Capacity Development for Adaptation to Climate Change in Asia - Climate Change Analysis", 21 October 2009, Shangri-la Hotel, Jakarta, Indonesia. [Keynote Speech]
  • Kitoh, A., 2009: Climate change projection for adaptation. JMA Seminar, JAMSTEC, Yokohama.
  • Kitoh, A., 2009: Climate modeling activity at MRI. 12th International specialist meeting on the next generation models on climate change and sustainability for advanced high performance computing facilities, 24-26 March 2010, Epochal Tsukuba, Tsukuba.
  • Kitoh, A., 2010: Climate change projection for adaptation. Seminar 2: Climate Change Master Plan for Energy Pricing Fluctuation and Food Security, Siam City Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand.
  • Kusunoki, S., 2010: Future change in precipitation intensity of East Asian summer monsoon. Workshop on Predicting the Climate of the Coming Decades, 12 January 2010, Miami, Florida, USA.
(2) Development of Cloud-Resolving Regional Climate Model
  • Kurihara, K., 2008: Research on Regional Climate Projection at MRI. Seminar in KORDI (Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute), Korea.
  • Kurihara, K., H. Sasaki, I. Takayabu, K. Murazaki, and T. Uchiyama, 2008: Recent development of Regional Climate Models in MRI. Meeting of Regional Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (RMIP) for Asia (Phase III). Beijing, China.
  • Kurihara, K., 2010: Non-hydrostatic Regional Climate Model in MRI, RMIP (Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for East Asia) International Workshop, Tsukuba.
  • Murazaki, K., K. Kurihara, H. Sasaki, I. Takayabu, T. Uchiyama, 2007: A Regional climate simulation over Japan nested with JRA-25. Third WCRP International Conference on Reanalysis, Tokyo.


JMA>MRI>Comprehensive Projection of Climate Change around Japan due to the Global Warming

Jun. 2010
by Team GW of MRI
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