The 4th Laboratory > Global Warming Projection with the Global Climate Model

Global Warming Projection with the Global Climate Model

Fig. 2 The simulated surface air temperature change for the 2081-2100 average in the SRES-A1B scenario experiment. (left) January and (right) July.

We are developing the global climate model that simulates changes in the atmosphere, ocean, land and sea ice associated with climate changes such as the Global Warming, since 1980s at the Meteorological Research Institute.
Results of the global warming experiment using the global climate model have been provided for the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and also opened to the public through such as the Global Warming Projection Information Report published by Japan Meteorological Agency.
The model (MRI-CGCM2.3.2) satisfactorily reproduced historical climate change in that the globally averaged surface air temperature has been increased by about 0.7°C at present since mid-nineteenth century (Fig. 1), with performing a historical climate change experiment. Experiments for projection of future climate changes are performed with this model, based on several scenarios for the twenty-first century proposed by the IPCC (SRES). The model simulated the surface temperature increase ranging from 1.5°C to 2.8°C at the end of the twenty-first century (Fig. 1) depending upon the different scenarios. The model also simulated seasonal variation and geographical distribution of the temperature changes. For example, the surface temperature warming at the northern high latitudes emerges very strong in winter, while it does relatively weak in summer (Fig. 2), which dominantly associated with the changes in sea ice and snow. Furthermore, we are studying detailed mechanism of the global warming with investigating simulated changes in the precipitation (Fig. 3) and the atmospheric circulation (Fig. 4).

fig1 Fig. 1 Variations of the globally averaged annual-mean surface air temperature change simulated by the MRI global climate model (MRI-CGCM2.3.2) for the historical climate change experiment and the scenario experiments based on IPCC SRES (A1B, A2, and B2). The values are deviations from the average for years 1961-1990. Light colors denote the scatter range for the ensemble simulations.

Fig. 3 The simulated precipita- tion change in July for the 2081-2100 average in the SRES-A1B scenario experiment. The values are ratio (%) to the 1961-1990 average. Greens to blue colors indicate the regions of increase, and light to dark browns indicate the region of decrease. A precipitation increase around the Baiu frontal zone is projected. Fig. 4 Three dimensional structure of the atmospheric temperature change in January for the 2081-2100 average in the SRES-A1B scenario experiment. The air temperature increases in the troposphere and decreases in the stratosphere with the global warming. The warming is large at the upper troposphere in the tropics and the lower troposphere in the northern high latitude. The atmospheric circulation changes in accordance with these three-dimensional temperature change with the global warming.


  • Yukimoto, S., Noda, A., Kitoh, A., Hosaka, M., Yoshimura, H., Uchiyama, T., Shibata, K., Arakawa, O., Kusunoki, S., 2006: Present-Day Climate and Climate Sensitivity in the Meteorological Research Institute Coupled GCM Version 2.3 (MRI-CGCM2.3). J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 84, 333-363
  • Yukimoto, S., Noda, A., Uchiyama, T., Kusunoki, S., Kitoh, A., 2006: Climate Changes of the Twentieth through Twenty-first Centuries Simulated by the MRI-CGCM2.3, Pap. Metor. Geophys., 56, 9-24

The 4th Laboratory > Global Warming Projection with the Global Climate Model

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