Research on prediction of climate environmental change to contribute to mitigation plan decision against climate change

Japanese / English

Research period FY2010-2014
Project Leader Dr. Akio KitohDr. Akio Kitoh(Climate Research Department)
Researcher in charge Seiji Yukimoto、Masahiko Hosaka、Masayoshi Ishii、Yukimasa Adachi、Eiki Shindoh、Shouji Kusunoki、Hirokazu Endoh、Tomoaki Ose、Atsushi Obata、Tomonori Sakami(Climate Res. Dept)
Hiromasa Yoshimura(Forecast Res. Dept)
Kiyotaka Shibata、Yasumichi Tanaka、Makoto(DeushiAtmospheric Environment and Applied Meteorology Res. Dept)
Masafumi Kamachi、Goroh Yamanaka、Hiroyuki Tsujino(Oceanographic Res. Dept)
Purpose  In the situation in recent years, the global warming is expected to become inevitable. The material to examine cost-effectiveness and the priority level, etc. is requested for planning and execution of the mitigation against the climate change. Moreover, needs in the Asia Pacific Ocean region for environmental change information have arisen along with economy development and changing the land use in Asian countries. The present research aims to enable the offer of advanced information on changes in the climate and the environment with focusing on the Asia Pacific region and with targeting at the near future especially by about 20 years to several decades. 
Outline (1) Regional climate and environmental change projection in Asia Pacific region by the earth system model until 2050.
 By the improvement of the climate reproducibility of the earth system model of intermediate resolution (atmosphere: 120 km, ocean:1°×0.5°),the CMIP5 long term projection experiment to contribute to the next IPCC assessment report (IPPC-AR5) is conducted.
The next generation high resolution earth system model is developed based on the experiences and findings obtained from the CMIP5 experiments. An atmospheric part with a very high resolution (about 20km),and the high resolution global ocean model that is capable of expressing such as Kuroshio Currents in detail are built in the earth system model. In addition,the model is improved and upgraded for the reproducibility improvement of regional climate with various henomena in the Asia Pacific region. The developed model is evaluated for the present climate reproducibility, then the climate and the environmental change projection experiment until 2050 are conducted. Additionally, the continuously upgraded earth system model will leads to the progress of climate change research in the future.
(2) Prediction of near-term future of regional climate change with initial value ensemble simulations
 The CMIP5 near-term experiments to contribute to the next IPCC assessment report (IPCC-AR5) is conducted by using the intermediate resolution earth system model (product of the subprogram 1)
 The ensemble experiment for the prediction aiming at the near-term future by the next generation high resolution model is designed and the observation data assimilation technique is examined and optimized based on the experiences and findings obtained from the CMIP5 experiments. The initial values of ensemble experiment are made on the basis of the present climate state of the model (obtained by subprogram 1) with the observational data assimilation, and the forecast skill of the model is verified by the hind-cast experiments, and then the ensemble forecast experiments until 2030 are conducted.
Schematic diagram of the research program
Effects  The results obtained from the research will contribute to the mitigation plan decision to reduce the influence by the climate change in Japan and Asia Pacific region by global warming and global environmental changes by offering advanced climate and environmental change forecast information to the society. Moreover, it contributes an international frame, the international collaboration (IPCC and CMIP, etc.) concerning the climate change, and on the operation in the Meteorological Agency as regional climate center (RCC) of WMO.