Research on prediction of climate and environmental change to contribute to mitigation plan decision against climate change
日本語 / English
Hiromasa Yoshimura(Forecast Res. Dept)
Kiyotaka Shibata、Yasumichi Tanaka、Makoto (DeushiAtmospheric Environment and Applied Meteorology Res. Dept)
Masafumi Kamachi、Goroh Yamanaka、Hiroyuki Ｔｓｕｊｉｎｏ(Oceanographic Res. Dept)
(1) Regional climate and environmental change projection
in Asia Pacific region by the earth system model until 2050. By the
improvement of the climate reproducibility of the earth system model of
intermediate resolution (atmosphere: 120 km, ocean: 1°×0.5°), the
CMIP5 long term projection experiment to contribute to the next IPCC assessment
report (IPPC-AR5) is conducted.
The next generation high resolution earth
system model is developed based on the experiences and findings obtained from
the CMIP5 experiments. An atmospheric part with a very high resolution (about 20km),
and the high resolution global ocean model that is capable of expressing such
as Kuroshio Currents in detail are built in the earth system model. In addition,
the model is improved and upgraded for the reproducibility improvement of
regional climate with various phenomena in the Asia Pacific region. The
developed model is evaluated for the present climate reproducibility, then the
climate and the environmental change projection experiment until 2050 are
conducted. Additionally, the continuously upgraded earth system model will
leads to the progress of climate change research in the future.
(2) Prediction of
near-term future of regional climate change with initial value ensemble
simulations
The CMIP5 near-term experiments to contribute
to the next IPCC assessment report (IPCC-AR5) is conducted by using the
intermediate resolution earth system model (product of the subprogram 1).
The ensemble experiment for the prediction aiming
at the near-term future by the next generation high resolution model is
designed and the observation data assimilation technique is examined and
optimized based on the experiences and findings obtained from the CMIP5
experiments. The initial values of ensemble experiment are made on the basis of
the present climate state of the model (obtained by subprogram 1) with the
observational data assimilation, and the forecast skill of the model is
verified by the hind-cast experiments, and then the ensemble forecast
experiments until 2030 are conducted.
The results obtained from the research will contribute to the mitigation
plan decision to reduce the influence by the climate change in Japan and
Asia Pacific region by global warming and global environmental changes
by offering advanced climate and environmental change forecast information
to the society. Moreover, it contributes
an international frame, the international collaboration (IPCC and CMIP, etc.) concerning
the climate change, and on the operation in the Meteorological Agency as
regional climate center (RCC) of WMO.