(3) Study on mechanism of inter-annual variations in the atmosphere-ocean-land processes and seasonal predictability

* Objective

We conduct atmospheric reanalysis and global soil wetness experiment, and verify results of the El Nino- and the seasonal prediction experiments with global atmosphere-ocean coupled model. Using these results and combined with North Pacific eddy-resolving experiments, we investigate unusual weather as cold summer and hot summer in recent years, and examine whether drought and heavy precipitation are reproducible in the model.

We further try to investigate model deficiency, predictability and limit of seasonal prediction, and to give guideline of future improvement in seasonal forecast model.

* Plan

We support execution of long-range reanalysis from research, make verification of products, and conduct data assimilation experiment to examine water cycle processes associated with the the Asian Monsoon using the long-range reanalysis system. These globally homogeneous atmosphere and land surface data thus obtained contribute to validation of model output and elucidation of variations in climate system.

We conduct global soil wetness experiment, compare with other land surface models, and investigate influence of soil wetness on seasonal predictability.

We examine reproducibility of seasonal and inter-annual variations and their mechanism produced from the climate experiments and historical experiments with North Pacific eddy-resolving model.

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