Sustainable water policy scenarios for river basins with rapidly increasing population

- countermeasure strategy to global hydrological variation in monsoon Asia -

Started in the year 2003 for 5 years
Principal Investigater: Kengo SUNADA (Univ. Yamanashi)


In monsoon Asia, severe water related problems have clearly existed because of rapid increasing of population, agricultural development and industrial growth. The situation in the middle of the twenty first century is expected to become more severe than current situation. Therefore, we will propose the water policy scenario for solving the water related problems as one of the Japanese contribution for Asian developing country. In this research project, eight river basins which have typical water problems are selected as target area in both wet and dry Asia. We propose the water policy scenario by understanding and analyzing the water related problems. We also propose the integrated water problem toolbox for integrated water resources management including assessment method of human science.

  Approaches of research

Firstly, we understand the variations of two fundamental external conditions. One is the influence of variations of climate as a natural condition on rainfall and runoff, and the other is the influence of increased population as a social condition on water and material cycle in the basin. We have to clarify the extent of the variations or the degree of the influences objectively and quantitatively.Next, we collect information from the real river basins that have a deep relation with human society, considering the characteristics and situation of each basin and adjust them. Then, we produce comprehensive and systematic policy scenarios for optimal water management based on analysis of the water cycle system. We do this in order to determine clearly the geographical condition, hydrological condition and the property of water cycle and water use in the study river basins. There are eight kinds of river basins that have the characteristics of Asia: four basins where "too much water" (flood) is a main issue, two basins where "too little water" (lack of water) is a main issue and two basins where enlargement of pollution produced by "water" (worsening of water quantity) is a main issue.In the process of making the policy scenarios, measures for making possible the development of sustainable water resources and designing the management policy based on the equality and characteristics of the area are needed. For that, we develop the first Asia toolbox composed of indices, analysis method, experience information and reference information. In addition, in effective cooperation with the NPO members or inhabitants, we study the function of network of water environment information for supporting the operation of the water policy scenarios.

A. Estimation of variation of external conditions
(A-1) Estimation of rapid population variation or variation of external conditions caused by urban development and industry evolution
(A-2) Estimation of climate variations by means of climate model
We understand the magnitude and the property of climate variations in monsoon Asia using the climate model. We estimate the variations of air temperature, precipitation and runoff in the study river basins using the results and runoff model and support to show the policy scenarios.

B. Making water policy scenario
(B-1) Making water policy scenarios in the river basins where flood is the main issue
(B-2) Making water policy scenarios in the river basins where a lack of water is the main issue
(B-3) Making water policy scenarios in the river basins where worsening of water quality is the main issue

C. Development of toolbox for water management in Asia
(C-1) Historical change and estimation of water policy in river basin of Japanese metropolitan area and comparison with study basins
(C-2) Development of toolbox and technique for supporting water management

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